The Latest from U.S.-Russian Security Relations

Jan 18, 2019 | Maria Snegovaya

This paper explores the correlates of Russia’s aggressive international policy and argues that rising oil revenues increase the aggressiveness of presidential foreign-policy rhetoric. Using content analysis and machine-learning techniques, I generate a measure of aggressive discourse as the share of anti-Western sentences in Russian presidential speeches delivered between 2000 and 2016. These are analyzed using OLS regression with lagged dependent variables. I conclude that the aggressiveness of foreign-policy rhetoric in Russian presidential speeches positively correlates to oil prices. I also...

Dec 3, 2018 | Rachael Gosnell

While concern about renewed international competition in the Arctic has attracted significant attention, the continuation of cooperation and adherence to international rules and norms of behavior is a far more likely outcome. The magnitude of activity in the region remains below historic Cold War levels and accounts for a very small percentage of overall global military activity. Further, stakeholders have thus far exhibited adherence to international law, and venues for dialogue offer an alternative to an Arctic security dilemma. Sound...

Sep 4, 2017 | Anya Loukianova Fink

This paper defines crisis stability, places it into a broad historical context, and outlines some of its challenges today. For the purposes of our discussion, “crisis stability” is a state in which parties to a confrontation do not have incentives to preempt or escalate, either as a result of mutual deterrence, mutual confidence, or for other reasons.

A crisis is an intermediate point between peace and war. In a crisis, opponents may use coercive signaling through threats, changes in force...

Apr 30, 2018 | Devin Entrikin

The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) hosted a group of seven students and researchers from the School of World Politics and International Security at the Institute for the U.S. and Canada Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN). This was ISKRAN’s fifteenth annual visit to CISSM as a part of the joint Collaborative Education and Security Project funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. The program develops and fosters the next generation of Russian...

Jan 16, 2018 | Nilsu Goren

Turkey and NATO are experiencing a mutual crisis of confidence. Turkish policy makers lack confidence in NATO guarantees and fear abandonment—both prominent historical concerns. At the same time, policy makers within the alliance have begun to question Turkey’s intentions and future strategic orientation, and how well they align with NATO’s. One important factor contributing to this mistrust is Turkey’s recent dealings with Russia. Turkey is trying to contain Russian military expansion in the Black Sea and Syria by calling for...

Dec 21, 2017 | Anya Loukianova Fink

This discussion paper analyzes a sample of 2014-2016 Russian-language publications focused on Russia’s security relations with the United States. It characterizes the Russian expert debate at that time as dichotomous in nature, where security policy analysts proposed either coercive or restrained policy approaches in dealing with perceived threats. It assesses similarities and differences of these two perspectives with regard to the nature of Russia’s political-military relationship with the West, as well as past challenges and then-future opportunities in nuclear arms...

Dec 19, 2017 | Amy J. Nelson

With all eyes seemingly turned towards the United States’ drive to renew defense innovation and restructure its channels for procurement, Europe’s efforts to do likewise might be too easily overlooked—or worse yet, misunderstood.  Over the past ten years, European countries have been steadily making strides towards revamping their militaries and enhancing collective capabilities, all while aiming to achieve “strategic autonomy” and prepare for next-generation warfare.  Although this process got off to a slow, perhaps rocky, start initially, more recent European...

May 1, 2017 | Catherine Kelleher

What conditions are needed for a stable transition to a new nuclear order, one in which the total number of nuclear weapons would be reduced to very low numbers, perhaps even zero? We have addressed the myriad issues raised by this question with funding from a grant on “Creating Conditions for a Stable Transition to a New Nuclear Order,” co-directed by Catherine Kelleher and Judith Reppy, from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation to the Judith Reppy Institute...

Jun 19, 2017 | Nickolas Roth

During the latter part of the Cold War, many strategists thought of nuclear deterrence and arms control as two of the most essential stabilizing elements of the same strategy in managing an adversarial relationship. The renewed crisis between the West (the United States and NATO member states) and Russia demonstrates how critical these elements are to the strategic nuclear relationship. As a result of recent setbacks between Washington and Moscow in the past few years, arms control has taken a...

Jul 14, 2017 | Anya Loukianova Fink

Over the last decade, Russia has been putting into operation its vision of strategic deterrence, a doctrinal approach built on a demonstrated spectrum of capabilities and a resolve to use military force. Russia’s strategic deterrence is conceptually different from its Western namesake in that it is not limited to nuclear weapons.