Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the US election shows that the notion that America First protectionism was an aberration was wrong. Supported by powerful constituencies in swing states, America First responds to fundamental forces at work over four decades: the progressive abandonment of the US’s self-appointed role as caretaker of the liberal rules-based system in the post-Soviet world, China’s rise as arch-rival, and the backlash against neo-liberal policies that came with high inequality, surging immigration and the estrangement of less-skilled native workers, especially men. Trump has channelled these forces into a juggernaut political movement.
Trump’s intention to raise tariffs gives the lie to another form of wishful thinking: that the fragmentation of the world economy into blocs will be along straightforward geopolitical lines, with China and its allies on one side and the US on the other. It will be much messier than that. Trump’s tariffs will disrupt trade between the US and its allies, and will also create tensions as – reflecting divergent economic and security interests – the US’s allies will respond differently.